1. Other pages in this release
- Labour market overview
- Average weekly earnings in Great Britain
- Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK
- Labour market in the regions of the UK
- Vacancies and jobs in the UK
2. Main points
- Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates have been affected by increased volatility, resulting from smaller achieved sample sizes, meaning that estimates of change should be treated with additional caution, and we recommend using them as part of our suite of labour market indicators alongside Workforce Jobs (WFJ), Claimant Count data and Pay As You Earn Real Time Information (PAYE RTI) estimates.
- The longer-term broad coherence between WFJ and RTI when looking at annual change suggests that these sources are likely to be providing a more reliable read on employment, particularly for employees; these sources continue to indicate that we have seen a sustained moderation of growth in employment over the last year.
- Despite these coherence challenges, the LFS continues to be the sole source of data for unemployment, economic inactivity and self-employment, and provides a range of breakdowns that are only possible from LFS data.
- As external sources are suggesting that recent increases in LFS measures of employment are likely to be overstating underlying employment growth, we expect that underlying changes in the other labour market statuses will also be affected; the more modest growth we see in alternative employment sources may indicate that unemployment and/or economic inactivity have fallen by less than the LFS has recently suggested.
- It is also likely that some of the recent movements in LFS estimates are being affected by the increased sample size and change in data collection methods over the last year, in addition to any underlying changes in the labour market.
- LFS estimates have been weighted to population estimates published in November 2023 for periods from July to September 2022; headline UK seasonally adjusted series before this have been modelled, but other series have a discontinuity at this point.
- In the year to June to August 2024, the UK employment rate increased to 75.0%, the UK unemployment rate decreased to 4.0% and the UK economic inactivity rate decreased to 21.8%.
These are official statistics in development and we advise caution when using the data. Ongoing challenges with response rates and levels mean that LFS-based labour market statistics will be badged as official statistics in development until further review. Read more in Section 11: Data sources and quality.
3. Measuring the labour market
Latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates are based on interviews that took place from June to August 2024.
Because of coronavirus (COVID-19) and the suspension of face-to-face interviewing, we had to make operational changes to the LFS, which moved to a by-telephone approach. This introduced an increased non-response bias to the survey, which was partially mitigated by the introduction of housing tenure-based weights into the survey in October 2020, as detailed in our Coronavirus and its impact on the Labour Force Survey article.
However, it was acknowledged that further improvement work was required to deal with the increase in non-response from those with a non-UK country of birth or nationality. As a result, an adjusted Labour Force Survey weighting methodology was introduced in July 2021. Further information is available in our Impact of reweighting on Labour Force Survey key indicators, UK: 2022 article.
From our February 2024 labour market release, LFS periods from July to September 2022 onwards have been reweighted to incorporate estimates of the size and composition of the UK population published in November 2023. This reweighting creates a discontinuity between June to August 2022 and July to September 2022. Users should take this discontinuity into consideration when considering long-term movements in the series.
However, we have modelled the seasonally adjusted UK levels of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity by sex and age band back to the start of the population revisions in June to August 2011. This has been done by scaling to the population estimates used from July to September 2022, while taking account of the relative revisions to population by sex and age band in each year over the revision period. This ensures that the headline series in Table 1, Table 2 (1) and Table 2 (2) (also available in A02SA, A05SA and A01 Tables 1 and 2) are comparable over the full series. Further information is available in our Impact of reweighting on Labour Force Survey key indicators, UK: 2024 article.
This reweighting does not address the volatility seen in recent periods and this may be seen, to some extent, in the future. Therefore, we advise increased caution when interpreting changes in series and recommend using them as part of a suite of labour market indicators, alongside Workforce Jobs (WFJ), Claimant Count data and Pay As You Earn Real Time Information (PAYE RTI) estimates.
The longer-term, broad coherence between WFJ and RTI when looking at annual change suggests that these sources are likely to be providing a more reliable read on employment, particularly for employees. These sources continue to indicate that we have seen a sustained moderation of growth in employment over the last year. These two sources also show less volatility than the LFS over the same time period.
Despite these coherence challenges, the LFS continues to be the sole source of data for unemployment, economic inactivity and the self-employed. There are also a range of breakdowns that are only possible from LFS data.
As external sources are suggesting that recent increases in LFS measures of employment are likely to be overstating underlying employment growth, we expect that underlying changes in the other labour market statuses will also be affected. For example, the more modest growth we see in alternative employment sources may indicate that unemployment and/or economic inactivity have fallen by less than the LFS has recently suggested.
It is also likely that some of the recent movements in LFS estimates are being affected by the interventions made through recovery actions taken over the last year increased sample size and change in data collection methods taken over the last year, in addition to any underlying changes in the labour market.
We are continuing to improve the quality of the LFS, building on our work to date, which our Performance and quality monitoring report showed by an increase in achieved interviews. Work is also under way to carry out a further reweighting of our LFS estimates, detailed in our Labour market transformation article. The reweighted estimates are due to be published in December 2024, which we anticipate will improve coherence between LFS and other sources. With this work ongoing, we advise caution particularly when interpreting short-term change in the LFS, and to encourage users to make use of a wide range of data sources where possible.
LFS estimates are currently not considered accredited official statistics and are currently designated as official statistics in development.
Back to table of contents4. Summary
Level/Rate | Sampling variability of level/rate | Change on quarter | Sampling variability of change on quarter | Change on year | Sampling variability of change on year | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Employment (000s, aged 16+) | 33,372 | ± 242 | +373 | ± 213 | +344 | ± 367 |
Employment rate (aged 16 to 64) | 75.0% | ± 0.5 | +0.6pp | ± 0.5 | +0.3pp | ± 0.8 |
Unemployment (000s, aged 16+) | 1,386 | ± 102 | -141 | ± 113 | -66 | ± 164 |
Unemployment rate (aged 16+) | 4.0% | ± 0.3 | -0.4pp | ± 0.3 | -0.2pp | ± 0.5 |
Economically inactive (000s, aged 16 to 64) | 9,263 | ± 215 | -120 | ± 193 | +14 | ± 326 |
Economic inactivity rate (aged 16 to 64) | 21.8% | ± 0.5 | -0.3pp | ± 0.5 | -0.1pp | ± 0.8 |
Total weekly hours (millions) | 1,064.0 | Not available | +4.6 | Not available | +25.3 | Not available |
Redundancies (000s, aged 16 years and over) | 80 | ± 20 | -18 | ± 33 | -11 | ± 39 |
Redundancy rate (per thousand, aged 16+) | 2.8 | Not available | -0.6 | Not available | -0.4 | Not available |
Download this table Table 1: June to August 2024 headline measures and changes [note 1]
.xls .csv5. Employment
Following an increase in the employment rate since early 2012, the rate decreased from the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. There had largely been an increase since the end of 2020, followed by an overall decrease between mid-2023 and early 2024. The rate has largely been increasing since. Over the year since June to August 2023 and in the latest quarter, June to August 2024, the employment rate increased.
Figure 1: The employment rate is above estimates from a year ago and increased in the latest quarter [note 1]
UK employment rates, people, men, and women, seasonally adjusted, between December 2019 to February 2020 and June to August 2024
Source: Labour Force Survey from the Office for National Statistics
Notes:
- Increased volatility of Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, resulting from smaller achieved sample sizes, means that estimates of change should be treated with additional caution.
Download this chart Figure 1: The employment rate is above estimates from a year ago and increased in the latest quarter [note 1]
Image .csv .xlsThe annual increase in employment was largely because of full-time employees. Meanwhile, the quarterly increase was largely because of both full-time and part-time employees.
The number of people in employment with second jobs decreased after mid-2023 but has seen an increase since early 2024. This number has increased on the year to 1.26 million (3.8% of people in employment).
We also publish estimates of payrolled employees in our Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK bulletin and estimates of the number of jobs in our Vacancies and jobs in the UK bulletin.
Hours worked
The number of total actual weekly hours worked has generally been increasing in the UK since the relaxation of coronavirus lockdown measures, but was largely flat during 2023. In the latest period (June to August 2024), total actual weekly hours worked increased over the year since June to August 2023 and on the quarter. The increases were largely because of increases in men’s working hours, although women’s working hours also increased.
Average actual weekly hours worked increased on the year, but fell on the quarter.
Back to table of contents6. Unemployment
Following decreases in the unemployment rate since late 2013, the unemployment rate increased during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. From early 2021, it decreased to below pre-coronavirus rates until mid-2022. The unemployment rate has been largely increasing since then, despite a period of decrease during the latter half of 2023. Over the year since June to August 2023 and in the latest quarter, June to August 2024, the unemployment rate decreased.
Figure 2: The unemployment rate decreased on the year and on the quarter [note 1]
UK unemployment rates, people, men and women, seasonally adjusted, between December to February 2020 and June to August 2024
Source: Labour Force Survey from the Office for National Statistics
Notes:
- Increased volatility of Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, resulting from smaller achieved sample sizes, means that estimates of change should be treated with additional caution.
Download this chart Figure 2: The unemployment rate decreased on the year and on the quarter [note 1]
Image .csv .xlsThe number of people unemployed for up to six months decreased in June to August 2024, dropping below levels of a year ago (June to August 2023). Those unemployed for over six months remain above estimates a year ago, but decreased in the latest quarter.
We also publish the Claimant Count, a measure of the number of people who are receiving a benefit principally for the reason of being unemployed. Claimant Count statistics are currently designated as official statistics in development. The UK Claimant Count for September 2024 increased on the month and on the year, to 1.797 million.
From May 2024, the Department for Work and Pensions has been rolling out an increase in the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality. This change is likely to affect around 180,000 claimants over a period of around six months, increasing the Claimant Count over that time.
Back to table of contents7. Economic inactivity
Since comparable records began in 1971, the economic inactivity rate had generally been falling. However, it increased during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and fluctuated around this increased rate. Over the year since June to August 2023 and in the latest quarter, June to August 2024, the economic inactivity rate decreased.
Figure 3: Economic inactivity rate fell on the year and in the latest quarter [note 1]
UK economic inactivity rates, people, men, and women, seasonally adjusted, between December to February 2020 and June to August 2024
Source: Labour Force Survey from the Office for National Statistics
Notes:
- Increased volatility of Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, resulting from smaller achieved sample sizes, means that estimates of change should be treated with additional caution.
Download this chart Figure 3: Economic inactivity rate fell on the year and in the latest quarter [note 1]
Image .csv .xlsIncreases in economic inactivity in the first year of the pandemic were largely among those aged 16 to 24 years. Following the pandemic, increases were largely among those aged 50 to 64 years.
In the latest quarter (June to August 2024), the annual and quarterly decrease in economic inactivity was largely among those aged 35 to 64 years.
The annual decrease in economic inactivity (from June to August 2023) was largely because of those economically inactive because they were retired or economically inactive for other reasons, while the quarterly decrease was driven by those who were long-term sick or looking after the family or home.
We also publish estimates of economic inactivity by reason and age from the Annual Population Survey (APS). Latest APS estimates, up to July 2023 to June 2024, show the majority of those who were inactive because of long-term sickness were aged 50 to 64 years, although long-term sickness had been increasing across all age groups during the year to June 2024.
APS estimates are currently not considered accredited official statistics and are currently designated as official statistics in development.
APS estimates have not been reweighted to the same populations as the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Consequently, all APS tables remain weighted to the previous population totals, which will be inconsistent with those used for the LFS in the latest periods. More information on the relationship between the APS and LFS is available in our Comparison of labour market data sources.
Back to table of contents8. Redundancies
The number of people reporting redundancy in the three months prior to interview decreased over the year to June to August 2024, to 2.8 per thousand employees. The redundancy rate also decreased compared with the previous quarter.
We also publish our HR1: Potential redundancies dataset showing potential redundancies, covering those notified by employers to the Insolvency Service through the form, broken down by region and industry.
Back to table of contents9. Data on employment in the UK
Employment, unemployment and economic inactivity by age group (seasonally adjusted)
Dataset A05 SA | Released 15 October 2024
Employment, unemployment and economic activity and inactivity by age group (seasonally adjusted). These estimates are sourced from the Labour Force Survey, a survey of households.
Labour Force Survey sampling variability (not seasonally adjusted)
Dataset A11 | Released 15 October 2024
Sampling variability for estimates of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity. These estimates are sourced from the Labour Force Survey, a survey of households.
Full-time, part-time and temporary workers (seasonally adjusted)
Dataset EMP01 SA | Released 15 October 2024
Full-time, part-time and temporary workers (seasonally adjusted). These estimates are sourced from the Labour Force Survey, a survey of households.
Actual weekly hours worked (seasonally adjusted)
Dataset HOUR01 SA | Released 15 October 2024
Actual weekly hours worked (seasonally adjusted). These estimates are sourced from the Labour Force Survey, a survey of households.
Unemployment by age and duration (seasonally adjusted)
Dataset UNEM01 SA | Released 15 October 2024
Unemployment by age and duration (seasonally adjusted). These estimates are sourced from the Labour Force Survey, a survey of households.
Economic inactivity by reason (seasonally adjusted)
Dataset INAC01 SA | Released 15 October 2024
Economic inactivity (aged 16 to 64 years) by reason (seasonally adjusted). These estimates are sourced from the Labour Force Survey, a survey of households.
10. Glossary
Actual and usual hours worked
Statistics for usual hours worked measure how many hours people usually work per week. Compared with actual hours worked, they are not affected by absences and so can provide a better measure of normal working patterns. For example, a person who usually works 37 hours a week but who was on holiday for a week would be recorded as working zero actual hours for that week, while usual hours would be recorded as 37 hours.
Workers temporarily absent from a job as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic would still be classed as employed; however, they would be employed working no hours. This has directly affected estimates of total actual hours worked during the coronavirus pandemic. Since the average actual weekly hours are the average of all in employment, those temporarily absent from a job also affected these estimates.
Claimant Count
The Claimant Count is an official statistic in development that measures the number of people who are receiving a benefit principally for the reason of being unemployed. Currently the Claimant Count consists of those receiving Jobseeker’s Allowance, and Universal Credit claimants in the “searching for work” conditionality group.
Economic inactivity
People not in the labour force (also known as economically inactive) are not in employment but do not meet the internationally accepted definition of unemployment because they have not been seeking work within the last four weeks and/or are unable to start work in the next two weeks. The economic inactivity rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are not in the labour force.
Employment
The term employment measures the number of people in paid work or who had a job that they were temporarily away from (for example, because they were on holiday or off sick). This differs from the number of jobs because some people have more than one job. The employment rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are in employment.
Workers furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), or those who were self-employed but temporarily not in work, had a reasonable expectation of returning to their jobs after a temporary period of absence. Therefore, they were classified as employed under the International Labour Organization (ILO) definition.
A more detailed explanation is available in our Guide to labour market statistics.
Redundancies
The redundancy estimates measure the number of people who were made redundant or who took voluntary redundancy in the three months before the Labour Force Survey interviews; it does not take into consideration planned redundancies.
Unemployment
Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks. The unemployment rate is not the proportion of the total population that is unemployed. It is the proportion of the economically active population (that is, those in work plus those seeking and available to work) that is unemployed.
Back to table of contents11. Data sources and quality
This bulletin relies on data collected from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the largest household survey in the UK.
Official statistics in development
These statistics are labelled as “official statistics in development”. Until September 2023, these were called “experimental statistics”. Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.
These statistics are based on information from the LFS. The reweighting exercise has improved the representativeness of our LFS estimates for periods from July to September 2022, reducing potential bias in our estimates. Nonetheless, the ongoing challenges with response rates and levels mean that LFS-based labour market statistics are now badged as official statistics in development until further review. This is also in line with the letter from the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), stating that LFS statistics should not be published as accredited official statistics until the OSR has reviewed them.
We would advise caution when interpreting changes in headline LFS rates and recommend using them as part of our suite of labour market indicators alongside Workforce Jobs, Claimant Count data and Pay As You Earn Real Time Information (PAYE RTI) estimates.
We are transforming how we collect and produce the LFS data to improve the quality of these statistics. We have published a Labour market transformation article providing an update on the transformation of labour market statistics. As stated in the article, we are planning a further reweighting exercise, based on the population projections published in January 2024. We plan to introduce the reweighted LFS series into our Labour market publication by the end of 2024.
More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our LFS Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) report.
The LFS performance and quality monitoring reports provide data on response rates, quality analysis, and survey operation changes for the LFS.
Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Read more about how the labour market data sources are affected by the coronavirus pandemic in our Coronavirus and the effects on UK labour market statistics article.
For a comparison of our labour market data sources and the main differences, read our Comparison of our labour market data sources methodology.
Making our published spreadsheets accessible
Following the Government Statistical Service (GSS) guidance on releasing statistics in speadsheets, we will be amending our published tables over the coming months to improve usability, accessibility and machine readability of our published statistics. To help users change to the new formats, we will be publishing sample versions of a selection of our tables, and where practical, initially publish the tables in both the new and current formats. If you have any questions or comments, please email labour.market@ons.gov.uk.
Strengths and limitations
Uncertainty in these data
The estimates presented in this bulletin contain uncertainty. For more information on uncertainty, please see our Uncertainty and how we measure it for our surveys web page.
The figures in this bulletin come from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), which gathers information from a sample of households across the UK rather than from the whole population. The sample is designed to be as accurate as possible, given practical limitations. Results from sample surveys are always estimates, not precise figures. This can have an impact on how changes in the estimates should be interpreted, especially for short-term comparisons. For more information on sampling, see Section 2 of our Uncertainty and how we measure it for our surveys webpage.
The data in this bulletin come from the Labour Force Survey, a survey of households. It is not practical to survey every household each quarter, so these statistics are estimates based on a large sample.
As the sample gets smaller, the variability of the estimates gets larger. Estimates for small groups, which are based on small subsets of the LFS sample, are less reliable and tend to be more volatile than for larger aggregated groups.
In general, changes in the numbers (and especially the rates) reported in this bulletin between quarters are small and are not usually greater than the level that can be explained by sampling variability. Short-term movements in reported rates should be considered alongside longer-term patterns in the series and corresponding movements in other sources to give a fuller picture.
Information on the quality of estimates is available in our Labour Force Survey sampling variability table.
Comparability
The data in this bulletin follow internationally accepted definitions specified by the International Labour Organization (ILO). This ensures that the estimates for the UK are comparable with those for other countries.
Our annual reconciliation report of job estimates article compares the latest workforce jobs series estimates with the equivalent estimates of jobs from the LFS. It is usually published in March each year following the benchmarking of Workforce Jobs.
Further information is available in our Guide to labour market statistics.
Back to table of contents13. Cite this statistical bulletin
Office for National Statistical (ONS), released 15 October 2024, ONS website, statistical bulletin, Employment in the UK: October 2024