Sir,
Alex Massie invokes the spirit of John Cowperthwaite (Times, 7 January 2020) to caution against the use of targets that might not accurately reflect the outcomes that are trying to be achieved. As statisticians it is important also to reflect on the wise words of another Scot, William Thomson 1st Baron Kelvin, who observed that “If you cannot measure it, you cannot improve it.”
While it is fair to argue that the limited supply of statistics and data may in the past have led to overreliance on incomplete evidence, that is no longer the case. Intelligent linking and analysis of data offers an unprecedented opportunity to deliver insights on our economy and society.
I also agree with his notion that evidence must do much more than satisfy a political goal. While people may not worry about GDP in itself, it is the trends in economic activity that it measures that are of great importance. Our mission as statisticians must be to measure and report useful information which can inform the answers to the questions of the day.
However, as Alex Massie notes, statistics can too often fit the old adage about the weary reveller and the lamppost – used more for support than illumination. We must show humility in our understanding that those using our statistics to make choices or hold the powerful to account will have several other factors to consider also.
We are already working hard to help inform policy makers. For example, we have recently introduced ‘real time’ tax data from HMRC to improve its estimates of employment and earnings. Weekly data on shipping movements and road traffic are enabling faster estimates of economic performance. Elsewhere collaborative working across the public and voluntary sectors is offering vital new insights on important issues including homelessness and child abuse.
Official statistics are a vital public service, providing independent analysis, free from political influence, on the topics which matter most to our country. And it is a service which is becoming faster, more detailed, more local and much more useful than ever before.
Sir Ian Diamond, National Statistician
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